Atlanta Real Estate Blog

And if you’ve been thinking about buying – why I suggest you take action now!

Nationwide, wage growth has lagged behind home prices, and the same is true here in Atlanta.

Back in April,  RealtyTrac, reported that wage growth in the Atlanta area in 2013 and 2014 lagged far behind home prices, with home prices growing at more than 10 times the rate of wages; only San Francisco saw a greater disparity.

I recall counseling many prospective buyers and actual buyer clients in 2013 and 2014 that prices were increasing and that trend had no end in sight, especially for new construction homes – fortunately most acted on my advice and got a great home at a good value. In one unfortunate case because of possible company sale and job relocation, a Buyer Client I signed on in Dec 2013 had to hold off his search for nearly a year and could not act in 2014. Fast forward to Q1 and Q2 2015 and the type home he wanted (new construction) is simply not possible in his max price and preferred market areas. It’s too bad when someone completely misses a market window of opportunity – (not because they refused to acknowledge market realities or listen to sound advice from a market expert), but simply as in my clients case because it was impossible for him to act when the opportunity was there.

I don’t see us going back to 2014 prices anytime soon, if ever, especially for new construction, but there are two good things for the market right now relative to 2014:  1. interest rates have actually come down 13% over the last four quarters (currently about 3.7% ) but count on this to increase, and, 2. while prices are still trending up in fall 2015, they are not rising at nearly the velocity they were from 2013 to early 2015.

According to RealtyTrac’s new Affordability Report, from  Q1 2014 to Q1 2015, home prices have risen beyond wages in all of Metro Atlanta’s six largest counties.

Here’s a graph of RealtyTrac’s findings:

Although home prices in Cherokee and Cobb County were relatively in line with wages, they still grew at twice the rate of wages– while in DeKalb, home prices vs wages grew at an astounding 20 percent, spurred on largely by new building and some great revitalization in older neighborhoods areas around the city of Decatur and westward toward Atlanta. DeKalb home prices in most markets south of Decatur had nowhere to go but up because for many years home prices have been severely depressed in part because of excess foreclosure inventory and other factors such as high crime rates and poor schools.

Home Affordability in 2015 Improves Even as Home Price Growth Outpaces Wage Growth…But, Forces of Change Loom on the Near Horizon

According to a study conducted by RealtyTrac and Clear Capitol, which was released on October 1, 2015,  average home price appreciation outpaced average wage growth between the first quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of 2015 in 397 out of 582 (68 percent) U.S. counties analyzed for the report. In its report, RealtyTrac emphasized that since bottoming out in the first quarter of 2012, the average U.S. home price has risen 24 percent, while the average weekly wage nationwide has risen 7 percent.

As the video explains home affordability improved to a two year low in Q1 2015 even with rising home prices – and a big driver has been the current low interest rates. Between early 2014 and early 2015 the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped 57 basis points (13 percent), from 4.34 percent in the first quarter of 2014 to 3.77 percent.  What should be of concern now, and motivate any would-be buyers into action sooner rather than later – all of the Feds recent chatter about raising the interest rates. We just escaped a planned rate increase last month, but with the economy continuing to improve a rate increase is only a matter of time – many experts believe we will see an increase by December. Any uptick in interest rates will have a corresponding negative impact on metro Atlanta’s home affordability index, impacting both the monthly payment and size of loan a buyer can qualify for.

Want more info about the current market, or to discuss some of the historic benefits of buying a home in the fall – Call me now  678-585-9691 –  Robert Whitfield

 
https://youtu.be/uYFGnYx4lhM&rel=0

  Over the last four years, Penske Truck Rental has produced an annual list of its *top moving destinations in the United States. Once again, the Atlanta metro area remained No. 1 for the fourth consecutive year.

The following list of top move destinations for 2013 was compiled in January 2014, and last year’s rankings for 2012 are noted in parentheses. New to the 2013 list is Las Vegas, coming in at number10. Sarasota, FL, number 10 in 2012, was combined with the Tampa, FL metro area for this year’s list.

1. Atlanta (1)
2. Tampa, Fla./Sarasota, Fla. (new combined entry)
3. Dallas/Fort Worth (2)
4. Orlando, Fla. (4)
5. Phoenix (3)
6. Houston (6)
7. Seattle (8)
8. Chicago (5)
9. Denver (7)
10. Las Vegas (new!)

“We have seen a continued migration of Penske Truck Rental customers from the Northeast and Midwest parts of the U.S. into these areas,” said Don Mikes, Penske senior vice president of rental.

Penske created a series of infographics to complement their list of top relocation cities.  We have attached their Atlanta infographic which shows Atlanta is famous for its international sports, soft drinks and its supply of Georgia peaches. The graphic also shows Atlanta’s median household income to be $46,146, and it displays the average listing price as $448,387.

*Penske creates their annual Top 10 Moving Destinations list through an analysis of one-way consumer truck rental reservations made online, and through their central reservations call center.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to forgo a planned tapering off of bond-buying caught most by surprise yesterday. That included the Dow and the S&P. After the announcement made by Treasury Chair Ben Bernanke, both rocketed to record highs.

Most analysts had expected the Fed to implement a slow withdrawal of its bond-buying program … a program that presently sees about $85 BILLION worth of bonds being purchased each month.

If yesterday’s Fed move was meant to counteract a slowdown and re-stimulate the housing market … it worked.  Interest rates reacted quickly and moved downwards.

Pair this Fed announcement along with the report released by the Census Bureau showing new building permits and housing starts a bit lower than had been projected … and you understand why the Fed’s decision is seen as such good news by housing professionals … and those hoping to buy or refinance a home.

The rising interest rates seen over the last month or so (a direct result of the prediction that the Fed would taper its bond-buying soon) has definitely taken a toll. Besides the obvious negatives that directly affect hopeful new home buyers, homebuilders, and real estate professionals … there’s the fact that fewer housing starts stagnates the economy through the lack of job growth and spending power.

Meanwhile, local Atlanta homebuilders are still expressing confidence at levels not seen for several years. But concerns were definitely being raised over what was being seen and heard from the Treasury over the last few weeks.

The fact that the Fed recognized that their stimulus was still needed and changed course on actions to curtail bond buying (at least in the short-term) is a huge positive.

My suggestion to anyone that is sitting on the fence regarding an Atlanta home purchase … pick-up the phone and contact me – 678-585-9691. I can refer you to three of the best lenders in Atlanta – so you can take advantage of some of the best mortgage rates in history.

Home prices in East Cobb and North Fulton have increased month over month for the last four months in a row! Data through April 2013 presented by S&P   Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price   Indices showed average home prices increased 11.6 percent and 12.1   percent for the 10- and 20-City Composites in the 12 months   ending in April 2013.  The   cities of Atlanta, Dallas, Detroit and Minneapolis posted their highest  annual gains since the start of their respective indices.   Atlanta, Las Vegas,   Phoenix and San Francisco posted year-over-year gains of over 20   percent in April. Mortgage rates are trending up as   well. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rose from 3.93 percent   last week to 4.46 percent this week; the highest it has been since the week   of July 28, 2011. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.66   percent. This represents the largest weekly increase for the 30-year FRM   since the week ending April 17, 1987. Despite recent gains in mortgage rates,   homebuyer affordability remains which should help fuel the ongoing   housing recovery.

2012 will probably be considered the year that the housing market finally hit bottom and began an upward trend back to normalcy. Home prices, home sales and new home construction all increased while at the same time inventory continued to shrink, and record-low mortgage rates continued. Let’s hope the trend continues!

These are some of the major factors affecting 2012 residential real estate, which many in the industry myself included, feel will carry over into 2013:

Stellar Mortgage Rates

Nationwide Mortgage interest rates continued a downward slide in 2012, reaching historic lows week after week. Record low rates helped  the recovery along by attracting more buyers into the housing market and spurring millions to refinance. The question is when will rates start to increase?

Declining Home Inventory

The market continued to clear its oversupply of homes, which had swelled during the housing boom. The drop in inventory is a major reason home prices began to rise: Buyers bid up prices because they had fewer homes to choose from. October’s inventory of existing homes represented a 5.4-month supply, according to the National Association of Realtors. That was 21.9 percent lower than in October 2011 and a six-year low.

Year of the Short Sale

Short sales were the word in 2012, as lenders continued to embrace that approach to liquidation as less costly than foreclosure. A short sale allows a homeowner to sell his home for less than his mortgage (in other words to sell his home “short” of the actual payoff amount).

Short sales of homes in foreclosure are currently on pace to outnumber sales of bank-owned properties. Daren Blomquist, vice-president of online foreclosure marketplace RealtyTrac, said that short sales of properties not in foreclosure also accelerated, accounting for about 22 percent of total sales in the third quarter of 2012.

Threat of Shadow Inventory Recedes

Worries about “shadow inventory” — the supply of distressed properties held back and not released to the market — has loomed over the housing market ever since the financial crisis began. But in 2012, estimates of the size of that inventory continued to shrink, falling to 2.3 million in the second quarter of 2012 from a peak of nearly 3 million in 2010, according to analytics firm CoreLogic. Experts now think that the shadow inventory is probably not going to hinder a recovery, as banks continue to release these properties in a controlled manner over time.

Investors Continued to Snap Up Foreclosures

Investors had to endure bidding wars in 2012 to win homes selling at bargain-basement prices and convert them into rental properties. Investors purchased 20 percent of homes sold in October 2012, according to the National Association of Realtors. In Atlanta, getting twenty offers on an REO property has become the norm, and distressed property prices have been on the rise since 2009. It has become harder and hard to find (and win) really good deals, especially in the under $60K price range due to the competition at that price point.

“Low vacancy rates and rising rental rates, along with statements by Warren Buffet, helped attract both individual and institutional investors to the single family rental market,” ReatyTrac’s Blomquist said.

New Home Construction Comes Back

In most major markets, Atlanta included, new home construction all but disappeared after the market crisis of 2007, as excess inventory made building more homes pointless. But new home construction soared in 2012, and in October reached its highest level since July 2008, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. In East Cobb alone, at least a dozen new home developments sprang up starting in early 2011, ranging in size from 10 to 20 home enclaves of higher end homes priced over $700K,  to larger 50 and 60 home communities in $500’s.

Builder confidence is way up too, suggesting that builders will continue to break ground on more homes in 2013. Experts say that declining home inventory amid rising demand from buyers is spurring the spike in construction.

“Builders across the country are reporting some of the best sales conditions they’ve seen in more than five years, with more serious buyers coming forward and a shrinking number of vacant and foreclosed properties on the market,” said National Association of Home Builders Chairman Barry Rutenberg.

Most experts believe 2013 will see the real estate market continue to improve, and prices continue to increase, but caution that a full housing recovery will depend on the employment situation improving, which is likely to take several more years.

I found this interesting too – I did not know Sandy Springs was the singles Mecca it is – but with the Northside hospital complex nearby and all the young interns that attracts, it makes sense! For the single gentlemen, I do know that nearby Vinings has a high population of single women homeowners – 3-4 ladies for every man!

Anyway, Money Magazine rated Sandy Springs, GA #4 out of 25 affluent US cites where singles are abundant!

Money Magazines Description of Sandy Springs:

Charming Southern gentlemen and sweet Georgia peaches in this Atlanta suburb are making the rounds at one of three major hospitals in the area or running operations at a Fortune 500 company like United Parcel Service or Newell Rubbermaid. Thanks to the natural springs the city is named for and the Chattahoochee River that flows through it, Sandy Springs offers a tranquil and peaceful setting for romance to blossom. After taking a stroll along the riverbank, head to Buckhead, Atlanta’s vibrant uptown district, for a night on the town. –H.Y.

I agree – young doctors and interns will find Sandy Springs very convenient to the major hospital complexes at Northside, St Josephs, and Emory!

A few stats:

Population: 82,674

Single: 35.6% – (that’s a high ratio of singles)

Median family income: $115,171 (That ranks in the top 25 of all 100 Best Places Cites)

Median Home Price: $380,000

Whether you’re a Grey’s Anatomy type in the medical field, rich, middle income, single or married, I can help you get a superb deal on prime Sandy Springs, GA real estate – from $200,000 to $10,000,000 – just reach out to me at 678-585-9691!
Robert

Well it’s nice to have my town, Roswell, GA win a spot (#76) in Money Magazines 2010 “Top 100 Small Cities in America” the only Georgia city to rank in the top 100 Best Places to Live! As a Roswell resident for the past 4 years I can tell you it is an excellent place to live and my family loves it.

As a licensed GA real estate broker and 30 year resident of metro Atlanta, I can tell you there are other excellent places to live in North Atlanta as well, such as Marietta, East Cobb (the section of Roswell I live in) Alpharetta, Milton, Crabapple, and Johns Creek – these should have been on the list.

Money magazines description of Roswell:

Home to several plantation houses from the Civil War era, historically rich Roswell is committed to a family-friendly environment. It has some of the best public schools in the state, the lowest crime rate in the region, and a myriad of outdoor activities, making it easy to understand why families flock to this affluent Atlanta suburb. Residents love their many public events, including the monthly Alive after Five summer festival, with plenty of food, shopping, and live music. –J.S.

All true and here are a few stats to go along:

Median Family Income- $113,750 (ranked 24th highest income of the100 cities)

Median Home Price – $246,700 (the average of the 100 was $239,300)

Now as you know, Oprah Winfrey can afford to live anywhere on the planet, and I read a quote in a magazine article where she said Roswell, GA was one of the best places to live a few years ago – though I can’t recall which magazine, I agree with Oprah!

Oprah or anyone else wanting a fantastic deal on prime Roswell real estate should call me immediately at 678-585-9691!
Robert

Judge Rules State Charter Schools are Constitutional
By D. Aileen Dodd
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A Fulton County Superior Court judge ruled Friday that charter schools created by the state Georgia Charter Schools Commission are constitutional.
Judge Wendy L. Shoob’s quick decision came after listening closely to arguments presented by seven school districts that had complained money was being taken away from their students and given to charter schools they didn’t approve.

Shoob said Georgia law allows the schools to be approved and funded by the state. “It is not an independent school system,” Shoob said. “The General Assembly has provided sufficient guidelines.

Commission charter schools are not required to be under the control or managed by an elected board of education. The funding is constitutional.”

The news brought Nina Gilbert, head of school for Ivy Prep Academy, to tears. She left the courtroom and waited in a hallway, sobbing with relief. She then shared the good news with nine Ivy Prep students who had been ejected from the courtroom earlier.

“I am so overwhelmed and excited,” Gilbert said as she stood before her students. “This confirms we are doing the right thing and we are doing it for the right reason.
“All of our schools are constitutional. Now we can receive equal funding and our girls deserve that. We are so thankful for Judge Shoob.”

Students also were excited about the news. They huddled together smiling. “I feel extremely happy we finally got accepted to keep going,” Ivy Prep student Atiya Shaikh said.

Kathy Harwood, the head of school for the Charter Conservatory for Liberal Arts & Technology, or CCAT, said she and her students were heading home to Statesboro vindicated.

“It’s the best news I’ve heard in eight years of doing this,” she said. The day didn’t start the way some of the students had hoped, after Shoob ejected 14 of them before the proceedings began. Some of the children had traveled four hours to get a live lesson in social studies and law.

“The judge has a standing order in all cases that kids of school age should be at school, not at the courthouse,” said Bruce Brown, a lawyer representing the charter schools named in the lawsuit, CCAT, Ivy Prep in Norcross and Heron Bay Academy in Locust Grove.
The disappointed students, shoulders slumped, filed out of the courtroom respectfully. Some were angry. Some were frustrated.

The judge apparently didn’t understand the point of the courthouse field trip and the untraditional ways in which charter school students learn, said Zahra Juma, a sixth-grader at Ivy Prep.

“We want to know how court works,” Zahra said as she sat on a bench in the shadow of the courtroom. “We wanted to learn something. We have a right to be in court because we are the main reason why they are here.”

The Ivy Prep students did as they are empowered to do at school when they find fault with the way the government works: They spoke up. The girls sat quietly drafting letters of complaint to the court, checking their spelling and sentence structure. They were not intimidated by the views of the adults.

“Today nine Ivy Prep scholars were denied the opportunity to be present in a hearing concerning our school,” wrote Zoe Nuhfer, a seventh-grader who said she came to cover the trial for the Ivy Vine, the school’s newspaper.

“The judge and bailiff in the court said kids were not permitted in the courtroom. We asked for an exception and it was rejected. Our scholars are upset that we could not support our school. …”

Students from CCAT were also upset. They carpooled four hours on Thursday and slept overnight in Atlanta to get good seats for the hearing. They sat across from the Ivy Prep students waiting for word of what was going on behind the court’s closed doors.

“I love that school,” said Emily Reeves, who waited with her mother and brother. “I grew up there. They are like my family.”

This blog covers all metro Atlanta property owners, landlords, builders, realtors, investors, property managers,   contractors, electricians, plumbers and painters who engage in any level of renovation…even turn-key between tenants.

Any renovator, owner, landlord, contractor, painter or other workmen, who disturbs lead paint while working in a pre-1978 home, school or day care center, now must be Lead-Safe Certified. If you’re not, you can face tens of thousands of dollars in fines. Plus, you put the health of yourself, your workers and your children at risk, which could result in lawsuits.

Beginning April 22, 2010, there are new Federal rules regarding how you perform any work that disturbs lead-based paint in homes, child-care facilities and schools built before 1978. You or your workers or contractors, now must be EPA certified and follow specific work practices to prevent lead contamination in pre 1978 properties. And, the EPA defines “disturbing lead” very broadly.

Failure to follow the new rules can result in federal fines of up to $32,500 per day or up to 5 years in federal prison, or both.

The EPA’s new regulations on lead paint take effect on April 22, 2010. The regulations are contained at Title 40, Part 745 of the Code of Federal Regulations. There are some very important highlights:

Effective April 22, no owner, firm, or individual may perform repairs or renovations in “target housing” without certification (40 CFR 745.81). Target housing means any housing constructed prior to 1978, so agents & brokers, landlords, owners and investors working in homes, apartments or condominiums built prior to 1978 should take this seriously.

There are only very limited exceptions, such as where a certified inspector has determined the project is free of lead paint beyond permitted levels (40 CFR 745.82). Private homes with no children or pregnant woman that are owner occupied may also qualify for excluding coverage, but only if the owner signs off that the firm is not required to meet the regulatory practices (40 CFR 745.82).

* Anyone performing renovations has extensive obligations to give disclosure and notice to building occupants in writing prior to renovation, including providing mandating EPA publications (40 CFR 745.84)
* The regulations further include specific work practice standards, so watch out for potential employee personal injury claims and OSHA inspections and violations as well (40 CFR 745.85)
* Even relatively minor work is included in the requirements: generally work disrupting more than 6 square feet of painted area is regulated. (40 CFR 745.80, 745.83) This includes most “turn-key” painting and touch-up unless extremely minor!
* Persons and firms performing work in this arena must provide their customers the EPA’s brochure, Renovate Right (40 CFR 745.81)(note: the publication requirement is already in effect, so if you are not doing that now, you need to start immediately!).

If you or your contractor own or work on pre 1978 properties, make sure you or they have taken and passed an EPA recognized course of instruction to become an “EPA CERTIFIED RENOVATOR”. These are typically one day courses and upon completion you will receive an EPA-approved color photo ID attesting to your certification. These certifications will be good for 5 years according to EPA rules.

For more detailed info on this new law, go to:

http://www.epa.gov/lead/pubs/renovation.htm

Experts see a mixed bag for 2010, which we will detail in this post, however, one thing is unmistakably clear…if you have a reasonably secure job, and ever wanted to buy your first home, or you are a current homeowner who wants to change homes or buy a  move up home, you better get off the fence and go for it soon!  Now is the time to buy!

Some of the strongest incentives ever to purchase a home exist right now: down payment assistance programs like the Georgia Dream Homeownership Program (I can refer a lender trained and experienced with this program – if you use the wrong lender, trust me, it won’t happen), our current historically low interest rates,  a good selection of bargain properties in almost all areas and price ranges, an $8000 tax credit for first time buyers, plus a $6500 tax credit to existing homeowners who are move-up buyers are all awesome. Its still a strong buyers market and these incentives have heated up the market over the last few months, but… the tax credits are set to expire, and the lending rates are expected to move upward after March 2010.

Significant Trends to Expect in 2010:

More Buyers Entering the Market – Home Buyer Tax Credits End April 30, 2010

In 2009, the federal government’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers was a huge topic in the real estate world. The National Association of Realtors, estimates 350,000 homes nationwide were sold to first-time buyers who probably wouldn’t have bought a home if not for the credit. The group also reports that about 47 percent of all home sales in 2009 will be to first-time homebuyers, up from 41 percent in 2008.

Hoping to spur the housing market’s recovery, the federal government extended the tax credit — which was set to expire on Nov. 30 — and gave buyers until April 30, 2010, to secure a purchase contract. The credit was also expanded to include existing homeowners, plus buyers with higher incomes. If the original tax credit brought more first-time buyers into the market, the expanded credit should motivate current homeowners to trade up.

Lending Standards Still Tight

According to the Federal Reserve, fewer banks tightened their lending standards in the third quarter of 2009. However, that doesn’t mean lending standards have gotten looser, either. In 2010, banks will continue to keep the subprime mortgage debacle in mind and require extensive documentation and stellar credit from borrowers looking for the best rates. If you plan on applying for a loan in 2010, take steps to get your finances in order as soon as possible and boost your credit score. FHA is still a very good option if your score is at least 580 – you can still get a loan with only 3.5% down payment.

Rising Mortgage Rates

In 2009, the Federal Reserve bought up a massive amount of mortgage-backed securities, keeping mortgage rates at historic lows for much of the year. However, the Fed is scheduled to end those efforts in March 2010, meaning mortgage rates could jump as much as a full percentage point next year. If you’re considering buying a home, now is the time to take advantage of historically low interest rates. If you’re a current homeowner thinking about refinancing, act now.

Stabilizing Home Values — Prices Expected to Rise in Some Places

According to the Standard & Poors/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released in November 2009, U.S. home prices have improved for two quarters in a row. The national index rose 3.1 percent from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2009. Likewise, the National Association of Realtors recently reported that median home prices have risen for two consecutive quarters. NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, also predicted that home prices will grow 4 percent in 2010. Some local US markets have farther to go than others to acheive stability, but Atlanta has by various respected indexes shown favorable results compared to many metro areas around the country and local market trackers have shown price increase in some areas – its safe to expect Atlanta Home Prices will follow the overall national trend and rise some more in 2010.

Feel free to contact Robert Whitfield at 678-585-9691 for more information on Metro Atlanta and North Georgia Real Estate and Housing Markets.